Zipcar.

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Reserve one of our many Zipcars – for a couple of hours or the entire day. Do it online or use a phone. We’re easy.

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Walk to the car, then just hold your Zipcard to the windscreen.
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Drive!
Drive away… and return to the same reserved parking space at the end of your reservation. It’s that simple. And remember, fuel and insurance are included too. Plus we pay the London congestion charge!

I had this idea about 8 months ago; and like most my ideas I soon found it already exists. That’s the world we live in. And I’m glad of it!

The only difference was that I proposed that you wouldn’t need to return it to the same parking spot. You could drive from London to Manchester, say, then get the train home. Or drive to the pub, have a few drinks, and get a cab back. But that’s something which might need a threshold of customers to make work.

I think the idea is great though. If public transport is good enough (which it can be in a city), and you can easily hire a car it gives you far more freedom. If this is a good system, and I end up moving to the city (my plan), I will be looking at this service before I look at buying a car.

I don’t want to own a car. I don’t want the hassle.

I’m sold by their promise. I hope it lives up to my expectations!

And by the way, I don’t want to own a house either. Imagine Zipbuilding!

Seriously.

I continue to make the transition to a more virtual world. Today I opted to cancel my paper bank statements so that they are now only accessible online. While my bank tries to entice me to do this by promising to plant trees, the reason I did it was to save myself the chore of filing.

The vast majority of my mail (excluding parcels) now come via email. My music has been available to me on my computer for a few years now so my CD collection is basically a backup. I’m getting more and more video content through the Internet. Books are not quite there yet, but the Sony Reader signals the start of them going virtual. Most other literature (such as newspapers) I now consume online.

How virtual, I wonder, will I be in 3 or 4 years?

What possibilities will this give me?

I’m starting to consider the future possibilities of being homeless as a good choice. People already go homeless when they travel the world for months on end. And many people are constantly on the road for business reasons and live in hotels. The big sacrifice is the home comforts, but what if you could take them with you? The possible freedom based benefits are rather exciting.

The Ansari X Prize was an incredible success, finally making commercial space flight a reality. Although the world doesn’t seem much different since the prize was claimed, it has put wheels (or boosters) in motion. From the X Prize site:

The Ansari X PRIZE was modeled after the $25,000 Orteig Prize, offered in 1919 by wealthy hotelier Raymond Orteig, to the first pilot who could fly non-stop between New York and Paris. The prize was finally won in 1927 by an unknown airmail pilot named Charles Lindbergh. Lindbergh won the hearts of a nation, and his world-changing achievement spawned a $300 billion aviation industry.

Expect a similar progression for space travel in the years to come.

If space flight was the escape plan, the X Prize foundation has now turned its sights to saving the world. X Prize mark III (details on two here) will be awarded for the creation of a commercially successful super-efficient vehicle.

Why an Automotive X PRIZE?

• Because today’s oil consumption is not sustainable - our current use of oil endangers our health, our economy, and the political and social stability of the world.
• Because 40% of world oil output fuels the automotive industry - and, in the U.S., 65% of oil consumption is in the transportation sector.
• Because automotive emissions contribute significantly to global climate change.
• Because there are no mainstream consumer choices for clean, super-efficient vehicles that meet market needs for price, size, capability, image, safety and performance.
• Because the automotive industry is stalled - legislation, regulation, labor issues, manufacturing costs, legacy costs, franchise laws, obsolete technology, consumer attitudes, and many other factors have combined to block breakthroughs.
• Because increases in engine efficiency have been “spent” on increased vehicle power, acceleration, and weight, rather than on increased fuel economy.
• Because we believe there is great opportunity for technological change.

source

The reward is a multimillion jackpot, but since it cost 10 times the prize to win the first X Prize we know that isn’t the incentive. This jackpot is important because it wakes up the media and adds prestige to the prize. The real incentive to compete lies purely in the fact that this is a competition.

We humans thrive on competition

Remember the original space race?

We need more competition.

I’m a big fan of Apple Inc.

Which is perhaps a strange thing to say when you consider I don’t own or currently use any Apple products! In fact, only yesterday, I removed iTunes from my computer.

You see, for me, Apple products don’t quite cut it. They are very showy and exciting, and generally nicely designed, but they don’t always get the details right.

But they are a revolutionary company. Guy Kawasaki would say they are curve jumpers.

And Steve Jobs — CEO of Apple Inc. — says in this year’s keynote speech from Macworld…

Every once in a while, a revolutionary product comes along that changes everything [...] In 1984 we introduced the Macintosh. It didn’t just change Apple; it changed the whole computer industry. In 2001, we introduced the first iPod and it didn’t just change the way we all listen to music; it changed the entire music industry.

(26:30)

It’s a bold statement; but it’s also kinda true. Only kinda, because these things were happening anyway. Apple just speeded things up a bit.

What Apple does well, is creating a product good enough that people want to buy it, and want to use it. They make products user-friendly for more people, they cover it in good and sexy design, and they do great PR. Their products are often not the best when it comes to functionality, but they do make those leaps. Oh, and they are big enough to partner with large and powerful companies like Disney and now Cingular; that really helps.

Whether you like to use the product or not, you’ve got to love Apple for injecting the consumer technology industry with a strong dose of innovation. They drive industries forward. They wake industries up.

I personally don’t like the copy protection in iTunes, but I love that iTunes exists and has made downloadable music mainstream and is leading the way for TV on demand. It’s turning a dream into reality. And although I don’t like the DRM protection, I understand its importance in getting media companies on board. It’s not perfect, but it’s heading a long way in the right direction.

So, in this 2007 Macworld keynote speech, Steve Jobs proclaimed that they are going to do it again:

Today, we’re introducing 3 revolutionary products of this [Macintosh and iTunes] class. The first one is a widescreen iPod with touch controls. The second is a revolutionary new mobile phone. And the third is a breakthrough internet communications device.

(27:38)

Actually it was a bit of a white lie when he said 3 revolutionary products, since he was announcing just the one. The iPhone. One product containing a phone, an iPod and the ability to use the Internet.

I won’t go into the specific details. I don’t know enough about technology to comment on the features or anything. Is this really their best iPod? Is it really a revolutionary phone? Does it really do the Internet better than any other mobile device? I don’t really know. I guess it probably does. It looks like it does, but Steve Jobs is very good at giving a presentation so I’ll save judgement for now.

But the real exciting thing is that this is a device that combines the most commercially successful music player with a good phone and the ability to use the Internet. One device. That’s important. It means people are much more likely to carry all of them around with them — all of the time.

I think this may be the pocket computer coming of age.

It is certainly a step closer.

The thing is, a portable device like this is never going to take over the computer. It’s much more difficult to type on a little device than it is to type on a full-size keyboard. And who wants to squint at a tiny screen all day?

But what if you could plug a computer monitor and keyboard easily into the iPhone? What if you could easily dock it?

• You dock it in your home.
• You dock into your High Definition television
• You dock it at your office
• You dock it to the screen in the plane
• To the hotel room screen
• To the screen at college.
• You dock it at Starbucks
• In the library.
• On the train
• In your car
• To your Sony Reader
• To your projector

It means you won’t have to worry about carrying a laptop around with you everywhere, because all these places will provide a screen and keyboard for you.

But vitally, if you can’t find anything to dock it into, you can still use it fully.

I’m not sure just how functional this will be. It certainly hasn’t got the specs of a desktop or laptop PC. But it’s not ‘too shabby’ either. It’s certainly powerful enough to do your basic word processing or read your RSS feeds on. I’m not sure if these things are supported, but there is no reason for them not to be. It obviously isn’t powerful enough yet to be your main PC, but we are getting there and if it syncs well it will be incredibly useful.

I know for sure that I will be annoyed by the limitations of this device. I basically want a full and powerful computer I can put in my pocket. I want a system that automatically works slightly differently depending on if it is docked or not. I want software companies to be able to easily plug in support for use on a portable device like this, but keep it as just one install. Just how much will the iPhone be able to do? There are so many questions, but since Mike Cane is busy asking them already I’ll just make one more point…

Even if it doesn’t do all I want it to do, I’m pretty darn sure this will be good enough to be a truly useful tool. It will truly be a great communication device. But most of all, it will show consumers and the industry that small computers with tiny screens and keypads can work really, really well.

It’s Apple’s wake-up call.

Ken McCarthy has just posted some interesting news about the migration of television. First it was obviously on the television, then it hopped to the Internet, and not it is heading back to the television again.

This week, Tivo announced that its customers will be able to view video content off the web on their television sets.

I love news like this because it’s a sign of the future happening as we speak.

I’m particularly excited by this other news:

Apple announced it has partnered with major airlines to let passengers power their iPods in flight and watch iPod videos in their seats.

This is an early sign of truly portable computers (computers that we can carry in our pockets). IPod videos are currently a bit pathetic because of the small screen, but when you can plug it into something of a decent size it makes a whole lot of sense. So essentially you have your videos always available in some form wherever you are, but when you find a screen, you can plug it in.

It’s not difficult to make the connection between iPod videos and fully functional computers. You can check your email wherever you are, but when you find a connection point you suddenly have the bonus of a big screen and a keyboard. I think video may be the one to drive this.

A final quotation from Ken McCarthy:

My prediction: When all this finally shakes out, every TV will come with a broadband connection and an easy search console that will enable users to search the Net and find the exact programming they want without leaving the living room sofa.

If they’re going on a trip, users will be able to insert an iPod-like device into their TV, grab the programs they want for the road and where ever they are - in a hotel room, on a plane, in an airport or train station, on a cruise, or the back seat of a car - they’ll be able to plug their video storage device into any video player and watch what they want.

What you want to watch - when you want to watch it - and the one I don’t here as often, but will be equally as important - where you want to watch it. That’s the future of video.

Read Ken McCarthy’s The Great Migration here.

I recently listened to an interesting presentation by one of the creators of Jib Jab — a company that has pioneered its way into animation through the use of the Internet. What is particularly fascinating is the fact that this company is an independent started by two brothers (and understanding wives). Marketing and distribution have been made possible by clever business sense, quality productions and the Internet.

This will happen a lot more.

KIWI is a great example of this.

As soon as people can easily transfer media from the Internet onto their TV sets, this will really take off.

JibJab interview part 1 here, part 2 here.

Without doubt more and more people are turning to online applications for the convenience it provides. But more and more people are also becoming frustrated when they lose their internet connection.

It’s all very well me having gMail available wherever I am, but if my connection dies I have to stop emailing. This shouldn’t be the case. A connection problem should still allow me access to my mail and allow me to send it. Sure my outgoing mail may be put in a local queue until the connection is restored, but most the time I don’t need to know about that. Apart from a little icon in the corner of my window saying Gmail is not connected, I should not notice any difference when on- or offline.

This is how I would like my gMail account to work:

I click on my Gmail icon on my desktop or type the address in my web browser.

My computer tries to connect to the gMail server. If I’m online, it compares the latest application version with the version stored on my computer. If gMail doesn’t exist on my computer, it will download it straight from the internet just like it does now. If my offline version is out-of-date, it will also download it off of the internet and the local version will be updated. If my version is up-to-date, it just loads from my hard drive. And, of course, if there is no connection at all, it will load from my hard drive.

The only time I should ever see a connection error is if I’ve never used email on this computer and I have no Internet connection.

A similar process happens for my email. When there is a connection, gMail updates my email and downloads it to my computer. When there is no connection I just continue reading unaware that I’m offline.

GMail should be simple because it already works on the web. Taking something more complex like Photoshop would be much more difficult but also perfectly possible.

Photoshop would work something like this:

Presume I’m on a computer that has never accessed Photoshop before.

I type Photoshop.app into the web browser.

A password box asks me for my Photoshop password to make sure I’ve paid to use it.

Photoshop checks to see whether there is a version offline. If so, it loads it.

Because of the size of the software this is done in modules. Anything out-of-date gets updated in the background, but only the out-of-date parts of the software get updated.

If no version is available offline it runs the front end from the web while surrounding modules download in the background.

Obviously breaking it into module is a lot more complex than gMail is, but it is perfectly doable. Photoshop may be a long way off, but gMail is only a step or two away.

The point of this will be that software isn’t installed by the user, it just runs. It may be slow at first, but it soon speeds up. You buy software (or discover free stuff) and it’s available on any computer with an Internet connection and appropriate hardware. (Provisions could be made to check USB sticks also, so a connection wouldn’t always be necessary).

And yes, this could also include operating systems.

Best of both worlds, and for the user off- and online are ostensibly the same.

Mike Cane left a comment in response to my post about the Sony Reader. He said he hoped I’d write about the possibilities of socialising books on the Internet. Ever eager to please, here I go…

Book Shelves and Coffee Tables

Anyone who reads books will check out the coffee table or bookshelves of friends when left alone in their living room. You put your favorite books on your coffee because that’s where they look first (and ideally because you’re reading them).

They’ll look at the coffee table when you go to the toilet.

If you leave them for longer, they’ll head for your bookshelf.

They do it partly because they’re bored, and partly because it tells them something about you.

Little tip: If the conversation seems to be dying, nip to the loo. While you’re powdering your nose they will look around for a conversation starter. A choice of coffee table books will catch their eye. When you return they will start a conversation on one of your favorite topics. And it will tell you something about their interests too: why did they choose ‘Book of Boring Postcards’ and not ‘How to be a Better Lover’?

The Internet and Books

In real life the social aspect of books is limited by the amount of time you spent in the water closet. Usually they don’t have time to browse your bookcases because you’re talking to them. Or because, horror of all common horrors, you put on the television.

On the Internet this restriction disappears; they can check out your collection whether you’re on the bog or not. No longer do we need to be constipated for them to scan your bookshelves.

Here are a couple of examples of the beginning of this social book revolution:

A simple list of books

This is Garr Reynolds’ list of books that he recommends (link opens new tab). I’ve been following Reynold’s wonderful Presentation Zen blog for some time so I respect anything he recommends. A list of his favorite books is quite useful to me.

Unfortunately there are a few shortcomings: I can’t easily sample the books, or find out what he thinks about them. There are so many choices, I don’t know where to start. I don’t know if all these books are relevant to me. And if I came across one of these books on another site, I probably wouldn’t remember that Garr Reynold’s recommended it.

A deep list of books

This is a blog by a young entrepreneur by the name of Ben Casnocha (link opens new tab). On the left hand-side of his page is a list of his most recently read books. It includes a little picture of the cover, a link to amazon, a one-sentence review, and a link to his fuller review if it exists.

This is very useful and it’s quite likely that a strong recommendation will have me clicking on that Amazon link.

Amazon

Amazon has already taken the socialising of books to a new level by allowing anyone to write an independent review. These are pretty useful when making a buying decision, but there is a big problem: I don’t trust any of the reviewers. Why would I? I don’t know them. Taken together I get a fairly accurate impression of whether the book is good or not, but what I really want is to read reviews by people I already know and respect.

The problem at the moment is while people link to Amazon, Amazon doesn’t generally link back to the people I want them to. Amazon is weakened for the customer because its databases are all inbred.

A Scenario

I’m reading Seth Godin’s blog and he tells me that he’s brought out a new book. I click on the link and I’m taken to Amazon. There are many reviews, but I ignore most of them because Amazon tells me Garr Reynolds, Ben Casnocha and my neighbour Michael, have all read the book. It links back to their blogs where I find both Reynold’s and Casnocha love it, but Michael thinks it’s dire. Since Michael usually has poor taste in books I take this as the ultimate recommendation and add it to my wish list.

Here’s what you would need:

A central database which contains just a few simple details. It contains your name (or online pseudonym) a list of books you’ve read, a link to a review if you’ve done one, and choices for levels of privacy. Install a plugin into your blog and you can automate the whole process.

Then anyone who respects your book choices has you on their own database. It’s just a database of names and links to their book list.

They go to Amazon. Amazon cross references the book they are currently looking at with their list of book-friends and lists anyone who matches that query.

There’s nothing stopping this happening now; we’re only one step away.

Electronic Books

None of this relies on the use of eBooks, but eBooks would make it easier and even more powerful. Some examples:

• You buy a book and open it up on your reader. It gives you the choice to tell people you own the book. If you decide to publish that information it automatically updates the reference on your personal book database.
• When you finish the book, you can click a checkbox that says you’ve done so.
• If your eBook reader allows you to type, you can write your review while you’re still reading. When you’re done, you just click send and it updates your blog and your personal book database.
• Your friend writes notes and musings in the ‘margins’ of his electronic book. You read the same book and see your margin has a marker in it. You click the marker and it reveals your friend’s comments.
• There is a reference in the book, but instead of having to troll the libraries and book shops, you just click a link. If there is a public domain version it tells you and you can download the reference immediately. It doesn’t even matter if it’s a rare book.
• An option takes you to a list of people who are currently reading the same book as you. It even says who’s on the same chapter. Instant book discussion group.

Not all this will be possible on the Sony Reader, but it will begin the revolution. And really, it’s the software innovation that is slowing us down more than technology.

The Internet browser Firefox is my favorite piece of software. Now I’ve made the move from Microsoft’s Internet Explorer I will never go back. The reason is simply because Microsoft won’t make IE open source. There would be no point, since they wouldn’t really own the software any more.

As a very amateur programmer I don’t have the skills to use the source code and create something I really like, so having the code doesn’t make any difference to me. But other people having the code does. They create wonderful plugins, which I can pick and choose to create my perfect browser.

If they shipped my browser to anyone else, they would think it was awful. If I received this browser as it is now just 6 months ago, even I would have thought it awful. But for the me right now, it is absolutely perfect. It has everything I want, and nothing I don’t want.

Firefox is the future of software.

Firefox works because it isn’t one product. It’s millions of products. And most importantly, it’s really easy to customise and keep up-to-date.

And remarkably it’s totally free. But that’s what makes it remarkable.

Linux will eventually take over practically the entire operating system market for the same reason. It’s not at that stage yet. If it’s now easy to use, I don’t know because it’s not easy enough to transfer.

But it’s much easier than it used to be.

I can download the software, burn it to CD, and try it out without installing it. Perfect. Except it doesn’t automatically work with my wireless card.

This isn’t the fault of Linux. In fact I had trouble setting it up on Windows — though it was Windows 98 at the time. But Windows wins out because I’ve already gone through the trauma and got it working there. I don’t want to have to go through that again, and while I stay with Windows I don’t have to.

I want to move to Linux because I know there are going to be big payoffs like there were with Firefox. But Linux isn’t quite Firefox yet.

But when it does reach the Firefox state I won’t ever want to move back. Not because it’s more secure or has a better interface, but because it will become increasingly plugin friendly. I will be able to make it my operating system. The changes I make won’t be cosmetic; they will be functional. That can’t happen on a proprietary system like Windows or OSX. It has to be open source.

Software patents won’t matter either. The open community doesn’t have a legal department. It doesn’t care about those kinds of rules. And it’s too widely distributed to police.

Eventually all software will be free because it will be better than anything an individual company can produce. Even specialist software will be free because the people who really make it are the animation studios.

Software is just the beginning, but it’s happening faster than anything else because there are no physical restrictions. If we want an open source world we have to find the technology to lift restrictions like labour and raw material. That’s incredibly difficult but it will happen eventually.

When it does capitalism will disappear.

Whether that happens in 20, 50 or 200 years, we cannot predict. But it’s the in between stages that are going to be really interesting. That’s starting to happen already.

Our economy has changed from one governed by necessity to one governed by desires. But that’s nothing new. The big change now is that more and more people have everything they want… except time.

People are going to start working less for money. More people will opt for part-time work in those non-passion-inspiring jobs so that they can spend time exploring their passions. As long as they can afford to live, they will do it.

But they won’t sit around on the beach for long because that gets boring. They will start doing work they enjoy and offer their output for free.

Eventually we will have a situation where scientists, doctors, computer programmers, politicians and even a different form of entrepreneur will work mostly for no pay, but will spend a day a few hours every week doing the few non-passionate jobs that can’t be fulfilled by robots and other automation.

Where they can they will volunteer because it makes them feel good and because they can afford to.

This is already starting.

At the moment there is a disparity between America and English spellings and the meaning of certain words. It won’t last long. Spellings, and I believe national languages, will start to merge into one international language — leaving cultural slang as the language alternatives.

The cause is the Internet. Television started to do it, but the Internet actively encourages it.

As an example, I’ve just downloaded the new version of my browser (Firefox 2.0). This new version has a built in spell checker loaded with American English. Whenever I type a word like realise it underlines it in red, and tells me the correct spelling uses a ‘z’. I’ve started to add the British versions of spellings, but to be honest I read so many American sites that I’m confusing myself.

And to be honest I don’t think it really matters. It’s not like I’m using text message (txt msg) language which is incomprehensible at times. Neither spelling is better or worse; they’re just different. Why not use some of the American spellings? (Other than because I want to hold onto my British identity.)

There’s actually a problem with us all using different spellings when we are using search engines: different spellings bring up different results. Not too long ago website writers actually had to actively misspell words in order to capture some of the misspelt search queries. Now Google has the ‘did you mean’ feature, that’s less necessary.

This is just the beginning though. Maybe translation software will reach a stage where we can communicate effectively between languages, but translations have never been particularly accurate even when using a human translator. It’s impossible to get the nuances of meaning through in a translation. If we start communicating with each other more, it only makes sense to start sharing a language.

Will that mean we turn to English as the primary form of communication? It happened with Science, but that was mainly because the Church didn’t understand English.

No, in a multicultural world I think we will start to see languages combining more. Well, that’s nothing really new since English is already a hybrid language. But it will become much more so.

I already regularly say math instead of maths, but the merging of British and American English is hardly a big change. The big change will happen gradually, but it will speed up as more and more of us are able to communicate with each other. If I can say enough in Chinese to have a basic conversation I will want to learn more words. But the process has to be two way, or it will just be me learning Chinese.

A cultural shift is something else entirely. A cultural shift has to be driven by something. The Internet will be involved. Multiculturalism will be involved. Globalisation will be involved. But something else must be involved, because the step from Chinese to English is currently far too large.

It takes something small like a spell checker to make the change. It takes small steps. One word at a time. In fact, it’s probably happening already without us really noticing it.